Climate zoning: identifying suitable regions for the occurrence of Alternaria Brown spot in tangerine trees in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Brazilian citrus farming has been migrating to nontraditional citrus-growing regions, which can be considered a challenge for citrus growers, as not all these areas are suitable for tangerine cultivation. Thus, the mapping of regions exhibiting favorable climatic conditions for Alternaria brown spot has become crucial in the selection of appropriate locations for the establishment of new orchards. This mapping enables the implementation of an avoidance strategy, which entails steering clear of areas where the disease is prevalent, aligning with fundamental principles of disease control. RESULTS: Thus, this study seeks to zone areas with high and low climatic favorability for the occurrence of Alternaria brown spot in tangerine trees in Brazil. Historical climate data series from the NASA-POWER database were used for all municipalities in Brazil. Agrometeorological variables used to determine the development of Alternaria brown spot were average monthly air temperature (Tmean) and duration of leaf wetness period (LWD). Areas were considered unsuitable climatically when Tmean was <17 °C or >33 °C, relatively suitable when Tmean was between 13 °C and 33 °C and LWD <10%, and climatically suitable when Tmean was between 13 °C and 33 °C and LWD >10%. The states of Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul showed greater thermal amplitude within months and throughout the year. The southern region of the country has harsher winters, with minimum temperatures below 15 °C, which is unfavorable for the disease incidence. CONCLUSION: The states with the greatest favorability for Alternaria brown spot were Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul, mainly from May to September. Rio Grande do Sul was the state in this region that showed the greatest favorability, as a consequence of leaf wetness exceeding 10 h. The main tangerine-producing regions in Brazil, including the southern part of Minas Gerais, the state of São Paulo and the metropolitan region of Porto Alegre, were mostly classified as relatively favorable areas for the occurrence of Alternaria brown spot. It is recommended that when establishing new tangerine orchards, regions with lower favorability for the occurrence of Alternaria brown spot, such as the North and Central-West regions of Brazil, particularly the states of Amazonas, Pará and Mato Grosso, should be selected. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate risk zoning for wheat crops in the southeastern region of Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is the second most consumed food in the world. One way to meet this demand is the expansion of wheat cultivation to the Brazilian Cerrado in the southeastern region. However, one of the major limitations is that there are few studies related to wheat climate risk zoning. Thus, this study aimed to determine the agroclimatic zoning of wheat by estimating the water needs satisfaction index (ISNA) in the southeastern region of Brazil. For this purpose, a 60-year historical series of meteorological data was used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration, crop evapotranspiration, and climatological water balance values. To define the agroclimatic zones of wheat and sowing date, the ISNA method was used. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics to determine the variations. To obtain the agroclimatic zoning of wheat, the geostatistical method of kriging interpolation was used. RESULTS: The regions with the highest rainfall are the south of Minas Gerais and the coast of São Paulo. The sowing period directly impacts the development of the crop, the available water capacity and the ISNA values indicated the spring and summer had better cultivation conditions, and the best window for wheat cultivation is concentrated in the fall due to the limitation of biotic factors. CONCLUSION: In terms of altitude (>700 m), Minas Gerais has 39.4% of the area suitable for wheat cultivation. Thus, climatic variations within and between the states of the southeastern region should be considered for the positioning of wheat cultivars in these regions to obtain the maximum yield. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Bioclimatic zoning for dairy cows in Brazil by statistical modeling.

BACKGROUND: Climate conditions affect animal welfare directly, influencing milk production. The Midwest region is the largest cattle-producing region in Brazil. The objective of this study was to elaborate on bioclimatic zoning for dairy cattle in the Midwest region of Brazil. Air temperature (Ta, °C) and relative humidity (%, RH) data from a 30-year historical series (1989-2019) collected by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA/POWER) platform were used. The Temperature and Humidity Index (THI) was determined for the hottest and coldest months. Milk production losses due to climate factors in the Midwest of Brazil for two daily production levels, 10 kg Milk (PL10) and 25 kg Milk (PL25), were estimated. RESULTS: The Midwest presented three THI classifications throughout the year: 'normal', 'alert', and 'critical alert'. The entire Midwest region was classified as 'normal' (THI < 70) between autumn and winter. The decrease in milk production (DMP) during the autumn and winter presented no loss for both production levels (PL10 and PL25). CONCLUSION: On the other hand, a 1 to 2 kg reduction in milk production was observed for cows with a PL25 production level between spring and summer in the southern Midwest region, while cows with a PL10 production level showed no reduction in milk production. Only the cities of Sinop and Cuiabá did not present a 'critical alert' during spring/summer for the risk of heat stress. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Neural networks in spatialization of meteorological elements and their application in the climatic agricultural zoning of bamboo.

Bamboo has an important role in international commerce due to its diverse uses, but few studies have been conducted to evaluate its climatic adaptability. Thus, the objective of this study was to construct an agricultural zoning for climate risk (ZARC) for bamboo using meteorological elements spatialized by neural networks. Climate data included air temperature (TAIR, °C) and rainfall (P) from 4947 meteorological stations in Brazil from the years 1950 to 2016. Regions were considered climatically apt for bamboo cultivation when TAIR varied between 18 and 35 °C, and P was between 500 and 2800 mm year-1, or PWINTER was between 90 and 180 mm year-1. The remainder of the areas was considered marginal or inapt for bamboo cultivation. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network with a multilayered "backpropagation" training algorithm was used to spatialize the territorial variability of each climatic element for the whole area of Brazil. Using the overlapping of the TAIR, P, and PWINTER maps prepared by MLP, and the established climatic criteria of bamboo, we established the agricultural zoning for bamboo. Brazil demonstrates high seasonal climatic variability with TAIR varying between 14 and 30 °C, and P varying between < 400 and 4000 mm year-1. The ZARC showed that 87% of Brazil is climatically apt for bamboo cultivation. The states that were classified as apt in 100% of their territories were Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, Tocantins, Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo, Sergipe, Alagoas, Ceará, Piauí, Maranhão, Rondônia, and Acre. The regions that have restrictions due to low TAIR represent just 11% of Brazilian territory. This agroclimatic zoning allowed for the classification of regions based on aptitude of climate for bamboo cultivation and showed that 71% of the total national territory is considered to be apt for bamboo cultivation. The regions that have restrictions are part of southern Brazil due to low values of TAIR and portions of the northern region that have high levels of P which is favorable for the development of diseases.

Influência de fatores de risco na mortalidade por doenças infecciosas e parasitárias / Influence of mortality risk factors by infectious and parasite diseases

O Brasil tem grande extensão e características socioeconômicas, demográficas e culturais distintas. Sendo assim, em algumas regiões, as doenças infecciosas e parasitárias (DIPs) ainda fazem parte do cotidiano da população. Desse modo, objetivou-se avaliar se as DIPs, nos municípios que constituem a Superintendência Regional de Saúde (SRS) de Alfenas (MG), têm relação com fatores de risco selecionados. Trata-se de um estudo transversal de base populacional, de caráter descritivo e abordagem quantitativa, utilizando-se dados secundários obtidos no censo demográfico (2010) e empregando-se a análise de correlação de Pearson. Todos os indicadores de saúde e educação estudados, correlacionaram-se significativamente com a mortalidade por DIPs. O sistema de abastecimento de água por rede geral de distribuição, juntamente com o número de esgotamento sanitário por rede geral de esgoto ou pluvial, foram as variáveis dos indicadores de saneamento básico que demonstraram os mais elevados índices de correlação. Dentre os indicadores relativos à economia, o rendimento nominal mensal até » de salário mínimo ou sem rendimento mensal influenciaram significativamente a mortalidade por DIPs e, entre os indicadores de mortalidade infantil, somente o número de nascidos com peso inferior a 2500g demonstrou relação com as DIPs. Os resultados mostraram que as condições ambientais e de saneamento assim como as condições socioeconômicas dos residentes nos domicílios servidos por esses bens, aliadas à divulgação de medidas básicas de higiene pessoal, doméstica e comunitária impactam na saúde da população, refletindo na morbidade e mortalidade por enfermidades de diferentes etiologias, incluindo-se às DIPs. Dessa maneira, o conhecimento da prevalência e das principais variáveis associadas pode fornecer subsídio para dimensão do problema, planejamento e implementação de ações de promoção à saúde e à prevenção de agravos do processo saúde-doença.

Due to Brazil´s huge extension and to different social, economic, demographic and cultural conditions, several regions in Brazil feature infectious and parasite diseases (IPDs). Current analysis assesses whether IPDs in the municipalities of the Health Regional Superintendence of Alfenas MG Brazil are related to specific risk factors. Current populated-based transversal, descriptive and quantitative study employs secondary data from the 2010 demographic census, by Pearson´s co-relationship. All health and educational indicators significantly co-relate themselves with mortality due to IPDs, The water supply system and the number of sewerage and rainwater per network unit were the variables of basic sanitation indexes with the highest co-relation scores. In the case of economic indicators, the monthly income of half the minimum wage or without any monthly earnings significantly affected IPD-based mortality. Only the number of births weighing less than 2500g had any relationship to IPDs. Results showed environmental and sanitation conditions, coupled to the social and economic factors of residents in homes with such characteristics, plus the dissemination of basic measures for personal, home and community hygiene impact population´s health. The latter influences morbidity and mortality by diseases of different etiologies, including IPDs. Knowledge on the prevalence and main associated variables may be a help in evaluating the problem and the planning and implementation of activities for the health and prevention of health-disease relationships.